ETF Index and ETF Sector Table

Disciplined Trading Signals for ETFs

"I use this strategy for my ETF entry points and to set trailing stops. It gives me the discipline and structure I need to manage a diversified list of ETFs at one time"

Exchange Traded Funds "ETFs" are index and sector funds that trade like stocks. We combine our proven Mutual Fund Investing Trading and Market Timing strategy with ETF trading advantages to arrive at a longer term ETF investing and trading strategy.

This strategy can provide context for day trading, but is not a day trading strategy

For those of you just arriving at this website, this section on Index ETFs and Sector ETFs is a special section of a much larger Mutual Fund Investing Trading and Market Timing website, a one-stop resource for mutual fund investors. The home page, left side navigation bar, or the sitemap will take you to other special sections which focus on the most popular well known mutual funds, and the best mutual funds for those with brokerage accounts, direct mutual fund accounts, 401k plans and IRA accounts.

ETF trading signals and ETF models to follow are just one part of a subscription to the full Mutual Fund Investing, Trading and Market Timing strategy. Member subscribers receive daily postings of strategy trade signals and status updates on over 300 leading mutual funds and ETFs, plus updates on asset allocation models and other trading strategies.

Pro-active mutual fund investors who are not satisfied with buy hold performance are turning to ETF's as one alternative to trade the major market indexes and to invest in specialty sectors such as emerging markets, natural resources, real estate, technology, and international index ETFs without bothersome fees and trading restrictions. ETF Sector funds augment 401k plans that have limited options. ETFs are well-suited for IRA accounts.

We have written a newsletter on the origins and workings of ETFs which you can read at Newsletter. Vol.1 - Issue 2.

Because ETFs and mutual funds are mirror images of each other, our strategy rules designed specifically for mutual funds also work with ETFs. See how the following well known ETFs correlate with mutual funds that track the same index. These same mutual funds with our strategy rules applied, when compared to buy hold, make excellent performance comparisons.

ETF Name Symbol Correlation Mutual Fund in Strategy
Nasdaq 100 Index
QQQQ
97.9
Rydex OTC Fund
Smallcap Value Index
VBK
93.7
Rydex Smallcap Growth
Large Cap Value Index
VTV
91.6
Morningstar Value Index
EAFE International Stock
EFA
93.7
Fidelity Overseas
Technology Sector
XLK
96.7
Rydex Technology Fund


Special Note on using ETF's:

  • Some ETFs have limited shares available for trading so prices on "market" buy or sell orders can fluctuate widely during the trading day.
  • ETFs are traded continuously during the trading day.However, the Mutual Fund Investing Trading and Market Timing strategy is not a day trading strategy for ETFs. It is a longer term strategy that can be applied successfully to ETFs.
  • Our strategy indicators and trading rules are based on price points taken at the close of the trading day. ETF prices posted in the table are ETF closing prices. We use ETF closing prices in our strategy. They are entered in our computations over night to determine trading signals for action to take on the next trading day. ETFs are treated in the strategy just like mutual funds.
  • ETFs incur transaction costs every time they are traded, just like stocks. These charges are fixed rates, so do the math on the size of your position and the frequency of trading
  • ETFs are relatively new. We are beginning to build a performance history of our strategy applied to selected ETFs as shown in Other Funds Performance. However, ETFs have high correlation values with comparable mutual funds that have excellent long term performance in our strategy.


ETF Index and ETF Sector Table

The ETF Index and Sector Table below is an example of the Table a subscriber sees every day. The "Status" and "Action to Take" columns are the two most important columns in the table. There, an investor sees the status of each individual ETF in the strategy and the action, if any, the strategy calls for today. The table also gives the latest readings on indicators, prices and position returns.

The table is grouped by investment categories as they are shown in 401k plans and asset allocation models. Selections for the categories have been taken from different ETF underwriters and were chosen for their liquidity and application in our strategy.

An explanation of how to read the table follows below the example table. The ETF table is updated daily and available for viewing by 9:30am EST.

May 20, 2005 Symbol Technical Indicators Prices Investment Strategy
    LongTerm Intermed ShortTerm Entry 5/19 Stops Status Action Today Position days in
                       
International ETFs                   .  
ETF Emerging Markets Index EEM       206.620 206.62 200.42 in buyhold 0.00% 2
ETF MSCI EAFE EFA     m+   156.46 . out wait    
ETF Japan EWJ         10.16 . out wait    
ETF Latin America ILF       80.160 85.06 83.26 in buyhold 6.11% 29
ETF Europe 350 IEV     m+   74.50 . out wait    
ETF MSCI China FXI         54.50 . out wait    
Natural Resource ETFs                   .  
ETF Energy VDE         57.10 . out wait    
ETF Vanguard Materials VAW     m+   55.23 . out wait    
ETF Utilities Index XLU   rs-   29.250 29.88 28.37 in buyhold 2.15% 50
ETF Gold GLD       41.980 41.98 40.72 in buyhold 0.00% 2
Real Estate ETFs                   .  
ETF Cohen Steers Realty ICF       127.850 139.68 135.49 in buyhold 9.25% 38
Stock Index ETFs                      
ETF Value Stock Index VTV       54.650 54.65 53.01 in buyhold 0.00% 2
ETF Growth Stock Index VUG       49.040 50.38 47.57 in buyhold 2.73% 16
ETF Smallcap Value Index VBR       56.450 56.67 54.76 in buyhold 0.39% 3
ETF Smallcap Growth Index VBK     wait   51.58 . out wait    
ETF Nasdaq 100 QQQ         37.51 . entry buy    
ETF S&P 500 Index SPY   rs+   117.460 119.29 . in buyhold 1.56% 16
ETF Dow Jones 30 Index DIA   rs+ wait   105.14 . out wait    
Technology ETFs                   .  
ETF Technology XLK         20.00 . entry buy    
ETF Information Technology VGT       42.160 44.45 43.12 in buyhold 5.43% 16

Say you have an on-line brokerage account and have owned "Information Technology ETF" VGT, since the last strategy entry signal. Today, by checking the table, you would see: the long term indicator is Negative coded red, the Intermediate Term Indicator and Short Term Indicators are positive coded green; the price when entered on the buy signal was 42.16; the current price is 44.45; the stop is set at 43.12; the strategy is "in"; the fund is a buyhold ; the performance of this position as of today is +5.43%; and you have been in the trade 16 days. More detail on reading the table follows below.

The ETF Index and ETF Sector Table can be used as follows:
  • For Buy-Sell signals on individual ETFs. The daily ETF Index and ETF Sector Fund Table can be consulted to make timing trades in and out of ETFs.
  • The ETF and Sector Funds tables are the source of trading information for making allocation decisions in diversified ETF models. See Tactical Asset Allocation Models Example. Models provide order by assigning and allocating fund choices to different investment risk temperaments.
  • As the data basis for the entries and exits in an ETF Model we manage that subscribers see updated and posted daily. This is an easy to read disciplined way to manage a number of ETFs at one time. See it at ETF Model Example.

To get started now using this strategy for your ETF investing, assuming you have an on-line or regular brokerage account, simply:

  • Subscribe to the Mutual Fund Investing, Trading and Market Timing strategy on this website
  • Consult the ETF Index and Sector Table
  • Consult our on-line ETF Model

How to Read the ETF Index and Sector Table

The Colors

The tables are color coded for instant recognition.
Green means an indicator is positive; the status is entry; the action to take is buy or buyhold.
Red means an indicator is negative; status is exit; action to take is sell.
Yellow means an indicator is neutral or in transition; action to take is hold

The Columns

The Date: The date shown in the table is the date of the close of the previous trading day. ETFs trade throughout the day. Mutual funds calculate fund prices once a day at the close of the trading day. We use ETF closing prices in our strategy. They are entered in our computations over night to determine trading signals for action to take on the next trading day.

Symbol: Symbols are assigned to all ETFs. They are used in obtaining price quotes, other data, and in trading transactions.

Indicators: Our system uses three technical indicators that measure price changes over 3 different time periods -- long-term, intermediate-term, and short term. They are green, if positive; red if negative; and yellow, if in transition or changing direction. Mutual Fund Investing Trading and Market Timing rules are derived from these three term indicators and the 3 columns of price data that follow.

Entry Price: The price we show in the table is the ETF closing price on the trading day following the entry signal. What subscribers pay for the ETF is at their discretion. We enter ETFs on a "market on close" basis to parallel as closely as possible the strategy rules. Adjustments to entry prices in the table are made for any subsequent dividends or distributions made by the ETF. For instance, if the ETF declares a .05 distribution, the entry price in the column would be adjusted by that amount. Entry Price column will be blank if the ETF is in "out" or "wait" status.

Current Price is the price calculated from the close of the last trading day. If you place a buy or sell order for the ETF, you will not receive the price in the table, but the price traded for on the following trading day.

Stop Prices are for either trailing stops or stop losses. The stop price given is the price below which an an "exit" or "sell" will be triggered. ETF stops can be entered for automatic execution. However, we wait for the ETF closing price to determine whether the stop has been triggered and the manually enter a "market on close" sell order on the next day. Stop Price column will be blank if the fund is in "out" or "wait" status.

Status will say either "in" or "out" or "wait" except on a day there is a "buy" or "sell" action to be taken, in which case, status column will say "entry" or "exit". When "in" is colored blue, it means the fund has gained or had gained more than 5% from its entry price and that exits going forward will be governed by trailing stops. See VGT in the table above.

Action to Take Today will say one of the following:

  • Buy - Rules have triggered an entry point and the ETF is a buy
  • Sell - Rules have triggered an exit point and the ETF is to be sold today
  • Buyhold - The ETF had a previous entry point, but is still a buy
  • Hold - The ETF had a previous entry point but is not currently a buy.

Return: This is the difference between the current price and the entry price of the ETF shown as a % gain or loss for the current position. Days in are the calendar days between today's date and the entry date

Cumulative Returns are not shown in the table. It is the return in the ETF using the strategy continuously from the ETF's inception date. The data is included in the Other Funds Performance

A full definition of terms, description of system indicators, and explanation of Trading Rules (such as what is the meaning of "1st" "rs+" or "m+" in an indicator cell) are available to subscribers.

For a more complete look, why not take a one month trial subscription to Mutual Fund Investing Trading and Market Timing. This one act can change your mutual fund and ETF investing future. Try it!

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